Position：Main > international > Content

Gaza ceasefire deadlock unresolved: triple game of Middle Ea

Date：2025-03-04 21:06 Source：未知 Editer：admin

Core Tips

The first phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement ended on March 1st, and the game between Israel and Hamas over the second phase negotiations is deadlocked. Currently, there are significant differences in positions between the two sides, wit...

The first phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement ended on March 1st, and the game between Israel and Hamas over the second phase negotiations is deadlocked. Currently, there are significant differences in positions between the two sides, with the United States continuing to intervene and Arab countries urgently mediating, jointly creating a complex picture of the Middle East situation. Military observer Niu Xinchun analyzed that there may be three possible paths for the ceasefire in Gaza, each reflecting the deep rifts of the Israeli Palestinian conflict and the struggle of international forces.
1、 The 'ideal path' for the second stage of negotiations: the possibility of fragile compromises
In theory, if both sides can restart the second phase of negotiations and reach an agreement, it will mean Israel's full withdrawal, a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, and Hamas releasing the remaining detainees. However, the feasibility of this option is facing multiple challenges. The far right forces in Israel clearly oppose compromise with Hamas, and Finance Minister Smotrich even threatened to withdraw from the government, putting enormous political pressure on the Netanyahu government. In addition, the "Gaza Strip Clearance" plan proposed by the United States, which calls for the complete elimination of Hamas and the relocation of civilians, further weakens Hamas' willingness to negotiate. Professor Li Shaoxian from Ningxia University pointed out that Israel lacks the motivation to advance the second phase of negotiations due to internal political constraints and external US policies.
2、 Cease fire vacuum period: Hamas' strategic advantage and Israel's passivity
If the second phase of negotiations fails to commence, the ceasefire agreement will fall into a vacuum. At this point, Hamas does not need to continue releasing hostages, but Israel still needs to fulfill its humanitarian aid commitments, such as allowing aid supplies to enter Gaza and relaxing restrictions on the movement of people. Military observer Niu Xinchun believes that this situation will lead to Israel's "passive concessions", allowing Hamas to consolidate its control over Gaza, while Israel cannot completely eliminate the threat through military action. It is worth noting that the Israeli military has closed Gaza border crossings after the ceasefire expired, preventing humanitarian aid from entering. This measure has been criticized by Hamas as a "violation of the agreement", further exacerbating the conflict between the two sides.
3、 Extension of Phase One: Israel's' Procrastination Tactics' and Hamas' Dilemma
Israel currently advocates extending the first phase ceasefire agreement in exchange for the release of more hostages, but refuses to enter the second phase. This plan is more advantageous for Israel: by maintaining the ceasefire, Israel can continue to rescue detainees without committing to withdrawal, while retaining the initiative in military action. However, if Hamas accepts the extension plan, it will face the risk of being completely attacked by Israel after the hostage chips are exhausted. Li Zixin, a researcher at the China Academy of International Studies, pointed out that Hamas has clearly rejected this proposal, believing that extending the ceasefire is equivalent to tacitly approving Israel's military presence, which may ultimately lead to it losing its bargaining chip.
4、 The Military Pressure Behind 'Free Negotiations' and US Disturbance
Israeli Foreign Minister Saar stated that if Hamas does not release the hostages, Israel will refuse to engage in "free negotiations" on the second phase. This statement implies a triple pressure strategy: firstly, cutting off humanitarian aid channels (already implemented); Secondly, restricting the movement of Gaza residents and driving them from the north to the south; Finally, it is possible to cut off power supply or even restart large-scale military operations. Niu Xinchun analyzed that the United States continues to provide $4 billion in military support to Israel, strengthening the Israeli side's confidence in "using pressure to promote talks", while the Trump administration's statement of "long-term control of Gaza" has further undermined Hamas' confidence in the prospects of negotiations. This model of "American endorsement, Israeli action" exacerbates the fundamental opposition between the goals of Israel and Palestine - Israel seeks to completely eliminate Hamas, while Hamas demands to withdraw troops in exchange for survival.
5、 International game: Arab countries' counterattacks and crisis spillover risks
Faced with the tough stance of the United States and Israel, Arab countries held an emergency summit on March 4th in an attempt to propose alternative solutions. Egypt, Jordan and other countries explicitly oppose the "Gaza Strip Clearance" plan and advocate for post-war reconstruction through multi-national governance or the Palestinian Joint Committee. However, UAE officials pointed out that without a clear path for the establishment of a Palestinian state, any reconstruction plan will be mere empty talk. In addition, the situation in the West Bank of the Jordan River continues to deteriorate, and the Israeli military is replicating the "Gaza model" to launch military operations. The Israeli Palestinian conflict is spreading from Gaza to the entire region. Qin Tian, an expert at the China Institute of Modern International Relations, warned that if ceasefire negotiations break down, Israeli far right forces may push for larger scale military actions, and the change in the US position on the West Bank issue may completely overturn the foundation of the "two-state solution".
Conclusion: The Path to Breaking the Crisis in the Middle East
The second phase of negotiations for the Gaza ceasefire agreement is essentially a fierce collision of survival rights and security demands between the Israeli and Palestinian sides. Against the backdrop of internal political divisions in Israel, unilateral favoritism by the United States, and weak coordination among Arab countries, any compromise appears exceptionally difficult. At present, the international community needs to go beyond the short-term ceasefire framework and promote the establishment of a sustainable political solution, otherwise the crisis in the Middle East may fall into a vicious cycle of "ceasefire conflict re ceasefire", becoming a difficult knot in global security governance.
Pre：The Japanese government firmly denies guiding the depreciati
Next：The West Hampton Wildfire in Long Island, USA has been effec
  • The West Hampton Wildfire in Long Island, USA has b The West Hampton Wildfire in Long Island, USA has b

    On March 9th local time, CCTV reporters learned from relevant departments in Long Island, New York that the previously raging West Hampton wildfire has been effectively controlled by 80%. This positive development has led to the reopening o...

    • 1
  • The impact and pros of the world's largest ice The impact and pros of the world's largest ice

    According to the BBC on the 4th, the worlds largest iceberg A23a, originally originating from Antarctica, has unfortunately run aground on South Georgia Island in the South Atlantic and is at risk of breaking in the future. This giant icebe...

    • 2
  • World Food Programme: Millions of people in Somalia World Food Programme: Millions of people in Somalia

    The United Nations World Food Programme released a report on March 4th stating that out of over 18 million people in Somalia, approximately 3.4 million are currently facing severe food shortages. Due to multiple factors such as ongoing drou...

    • 3
  • Green Energy Transition in Africa: A Bright Path to Green Energy Transition in Africa: A Bright Path to

    In Garissa County, northeastern Kenya, the days when night fell and power outages were frequent have become a thing of the past. The local elderly man Mwara pointed with emotion to the neatly arranged photovoltaic panels on the grassland, e...

    • 4
  • Gaza ceasefire deadlock unresolved: triple game of Gaza ceasefire deadlock unresolved: triple game of

    The first phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement ended on March 1st, and the game between Israel and Hamas over the second phase negotiations is deadlocked. Currently, there are significant differences in positions between the two sides, wit...

    • 5
  • The Japanese government firmly denies guiding the d The Japanese government firmly denies guiding the d

    In response to the accusation made by US President Trump on the 3rd that Japan has been guiding currency depreciation for a long time, the Japanese government quickly responded on the 4th and explicitly denied the relevant accusations. Japa...

    • 6
  • The joint public welfare activity of ＂2023 Yiqi L The joint public welfare activity of ＂2023 Yiqi L

    In September 2023, a warm and hopeful 2023 Yiqi Love joint public welfare activity was warmly launched in Haidian. This event was initiated by the Haidian Education Foundation, and as of September 9th, it has successfully attracted 6783 act...

    • 7
  • The 'Wrong Socks Day' event opens The 'Wrong Socks Day' event opens

    On December 23, 2023, as the first warm winter sun gently falls on every inch of the citys land, the eighth Wrong Socks Day event is like a warm light, opening warmly across the country. This unique public welfare advocacy activity was care...

    • 8
  • B company participates in Make-A-Wish charity aucti B company participates in Make-A-Wish charity aucti

    On February 18th, well-known gaming company B announced its participation in the Make-A-Wish charity auction event. One of the highlights of this auction is that the winning bidder will have the opportunity to create an exclusive game NPC f...

    • 9

Hot

Copyright © 2015-2018 Jane Eyes all rights reserved